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14.06.2006

Analysten äußern sich zu Apple-Marktanteil, -Nachfrage und -Mobiltelefon [Update]

Piper Jaffray-Analyst Gene Munster sieht ordentliche Nachfrage nach Macs (im Vergleich zum Vorjahresquartal) und etwas schwächelnde iPod-Verkäufe, rechnet aber insbesondere mit einem guten September-Quartal: «We believe September has the potential to be a breakout quarter for Apple due to the convergence of the following factors: back-to-school selling season, full availability of MacBook and MacBook Pro, Boot Camp impact on overall Mac demand, PC-to-Mac switcher ad campaign, and the halo effect,"» zitiert AP Munster.
«The biggest trend Mr. Munster took away from his interviews was 93% of the resellers saying that the initial demand they've seen for the MacBook is "similar or better than what they had been expecting prior to the launch." In fact, over half of the respondents said that early demand for the MacBook is greater than the early demand they saw for the MacBook Pro when it shipped in February.» TMO. An eine besonders gesteigerte Nachfrage durch Boot Camp glauben die von Munster befragten Händler derzeit allerdings nicht.

Needham&Co-Analyst Charles Wolf glaubt, dass Apple seinen Marktanteil aufgrund von Boot Camp weltweit verdoppeln könnte. «His second survey revealed that the likelihood of Windows users switching to Mac rose 8 per cent on the basis that Macs can run Windows. "An increase which would triple Apple's share in the home market and almost double its share worldwide," he said. His report states that the potential switch rate among Windows users who have iPods is dramatically higher than that of those who don't. "The Mac's ability to run Windows gave the halo effect a terrific boost: the mean switch rate rose 12.6 percentage points to 20.2 per cent,"» wird Wolf bei Macworld UK zitiert. Allerdings rechnet er mit starken Verkaufs-Zuwächsen erst ab Anfang 2007.

ATR-Analyst Shaw Wu gibt sich weiterhin fest überzeugt von einem Apple-Mobiltelefon, allerdings prognostiziert er es frühestens für 2007, eher sogar in Richtung 2008-2009. «“It could participate the traditional way by partnering with carriers like Cingular. However, we believe Apple is also exploring a vertically integrated model and user experience similar to both its iPod + iTunes and Mac businesses,” Wu said. “With an MVNO (mobile virtual network operator), Apple would have tighter control over the user experience. Moreover, we believe its 147 Apple stores would come in handy.”» iLounge.

Update: «Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster on Wednesday issued a research report that looked at the NPD iPod sales data for May, concluding that Apple is on track to sell 7.7 to 8.2 million iPods this quarter.[...] Mr. Munster noted that Apple's iPod market share in May was 76%, which was flat with April. However, he said: "The iPod number will likely be a nonevent for the June quarter. More importantly, we believe the Mac number has room for upside. We expect new versions of iPod and positive seasonality will be a catalyst for this segment of the business in the back half of 2006."» TMO.

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